27 feb our performance

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SENSEX TIME ANALASYS

Sensex Time Analysis:
Before we get into current analysis Check earlier chart 2nd image attached.
Had mentioned we could see a month or more of stability which would be around 20-40 sessions. Also later had mentioned about caution once the time period of 40 sessions was done.
Now :
--> All downmoves till now have lasted for around 47-51 sessions.
--> The first two drops were approximately 30 % . ( 21k to 14.7k and 17.7k to 12.5k )
---> The counter moves ( pullback or bear rallies ) lasted for around 19-28 sessions.
---> The counter moves gave a bounce back of 20-25 % in the short run.
--- > In the last downmove to october lows the down move again lasted for 50 sessions but the drop was 50% which was much more deeper.
--- > Similarly the counter back gave a bounce back of 35-40 % in the short run.
Possible scenarios :
CASE 1 - Top at 10945 on 5th November
In this case after the top made Sensex reached a low of 8631 after 52 sessions but the low made is much above the 7700 low of October and this would be a deviation from the moves pattern till now.
A deviation from the above pattern would imply change of trend but that can only be confirmed if Sensex manages to cross 11k-11.5k.
We would not consider this scenario as the pullback move now remains of only 6 sessions which is too small a period and can be a reaction to sharp downmove ( just like Jan pullback). Also as fall was deep we can expect the counter move could take more time ( 47 sessions 1.5-2 times the general) .
CASE 2--- Top at 10470 on 7th Jan.
In this case if we consider the top being made on 7th Jan then Sensex may have well begun the downmove and may take around 50 sessions to make a new low or give more clarity on whether we have already found a major bottom or not.
Such a time period calculation gives March last week or later.
CASE 3 : Major Bottom formed.
In my previous comparisons of Sensex bear cycles had shown a major trend change and a turnaround is indicated only when markets start making higher highs and higher bottoms. So till we dont cross 11k-11.5k zone and on a larger extent of confirmation beyond 12.5k we would still remain in the downtrend.
On fibonacci time analysis a correction can last for 8-13-21 months. The 8th month came around Sept-Oct and 13th Month comes around Feb-March. So these months are the most uncertain months and a major bottom or top is made in this period.
Time and Price basis we can confirm whether the downtrend is over or not only by March end or little later which is after 13-14 months ( or even goes till 21 mths will keep this aside now :) . After which we could see a consolidation move for months and market may retrace back 38/50/61% of the full fall from 21k.
Conclusion :
Time Analysis is only a guess-work method and we cannot term it to be highly accurate but the aim of the analysis is to get us a brief guide of what is ahead of us and act accordingly. On all the 3 cases it may not be clear whether we have a new low / already bottomed / turnaround but one thing is clear that we may be get a better picture after March end.
Also 8631/8316 levels would be the supports which would decide the next big move in the market.

Eicher Motors announces buy-back at Rs 691.68 a share cmp 226 best buy

Eicher Motors announces buy-back at Rs 691.68 a share
MUMBAI: Eicher Motors announced on Thursday that it would buy-back up to 14,08,969 fully paid-up equity shares of the face value Rs.10 each from the existing shareholders of equity shares through the Tender Offer route in accordance with Section 77A of t he Companies Act, 1956 at a price of Rs. 691.68 per share payable in cash, for an amount aggregating up to Rs. 97.46 crore. The offer size represents up to 21.28% of the aggregate of the company's total paid-up equity capital and free reserves as on March 31, 2008. The buyback would not be more than 25% of its total paid-up equity capital as provided under section 77A of the Companies Act, 1956. In terms of buy-back Regulations, under tender offer route, the promoters have right to participate in buyback. Therefore, Mitsubishi Motors Corporation is free to participate in the proposed buy-back to the extent of their shareholding. They hold 10 lak h equity shares of the company. AB Volvo, Sweden holding 8.1% of equity share capital of the company vide its letter dated November 18, 2008 has confirmed that it wouldl not participate in the proposed buyback. The buyback offer opens on March 12 and closes on March 26. At 3.25 pm on the BSE, the stock was quoted at Rs 226, down Rs 11 from yesterday’s close of Rs 237.30

24 companies discloses detail of pledge shares after SEBI notification

Many Indian companies are now-a-days looking busy in collecting data related to pledge shares, after recent SEBI’s move. As per Sebi’s new guideline, all companies will have to reveal information about shares pledged by promoters within a period of 7 days after the promoters give the companies an intimation. The regulator's announcement comes in the wake of the Satyam scam, wherein promoter Ramalinga Raju had pledged nearly all his shares, whose prices he had inflated by falsifying profits. Few companies, which revealed their details after SEBI’s notification, are as follows:-
Name of Company Shares Pledged % of paid up shares
Micro Inks 1.75 crore 70.50
Bhuwalka Steel 15.56 lakh 30.00
Ganesh Housing Corp. 97.96 lakh 30.00
Radaan Mediaworks 1.25 crore 23.08
Dolphin Offshore Ent. 28.35 lakh 30.00
Pasupati Acrylon 1.51 crore 21.26
Torrent Power 5.22 crore 20.97
SSPDL 25.85 lakh 20.00
Kriti Industries 1.23 crore 19.95
Shyam Telecom 22 lakh 19.52
United Spirits 1.86 crore 18.00
Asian Paints 1.43 crore 14.98
Great Offshore 55.27 lakh 14.88
Fluidomat 7.34 lakh 14.83
Khandwala Securities 17.33 lakh 14.52
Murudeshwar Ceramics 22.78 lakh 13.02
C&C Construction 23.lakh 12.60
Bilpower 11.60 lakh 11.05
Parsvnath Developers NA 10.00
Lanco Infratetech 37.10 lakh 8.52
Godrej Consumer Products 1.95 crore 7.78
Prince Stone Investments 1.52 crore 6.85

Kavveri Telecom Products Ltd 5 lakh 5.00
JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals 38,000 0.04

It may be noted that, in developed countries such as the US, not only promoters but directors too are required to disclose their pledged shares.A market expert, which was not to be identified said, At presently, most of the promoters were hesitating to reveal as there is fear among investors that pledging of shares would cost promoters dearly.

ASTROLOGICAL VIEW FOR FEB MONTH

Month of January, the first fall on 7th was due to Satyam. It gave opportunity to deep pocket investors, to accumulate their choice of stocks in a range-bound steady market. The close and low of 23rd turned market sentiment in extremely bearish mode; supporting fundamental reasons and feared was Sun eclipse aggravated the bearish mood. The surprise came by the higher opening on 27th, and held strong to close above 2800. Gold made historic high while crude made new low, banking declined further and safe sectors like FMCG attracted more buying. Technical February monthly: The lowest weekly close of 2008 is 2513 in the 4th week of October; simple observation reveals that there is a plateau of multiple resistance closings at 3085 and at bottom strong consolidated weekly support is around 2660. 23rd Jan, gave close 2655 was just below that level, now being seen as not clear but pointed bottom. Monthly levels 2530-2660-2740-2817-2881-2920-3048-3155 and 3318 Time factor or general assumption is before February 7th, we may see final strong bear attempt to break nifty support of 2600, and during the phase 2920 will act as resistance. 9th to 22nd February, broad expectation is bullish. Bright possibility nifty will cross 2920 and 3045 during this period, and even 3155 cannot be overruled. The statement is valid provided nifty does not break below 2650 in the previous time zone.23rd and 24th are very bad day and next tow days are strongly bullish. Derivative close is expected to be above January close. Sun Transit – Nakshatra Shravan- 23rd to 5th FEB. The zone has been explained in the monthly January write. Names of the stock givenwere RIL, HDFC, RELCAP, RELINFRA and PANTALOON, as positive and alreadyRELIANCE has turned the sentiment upwards. Weekly astrology report is sent with dailyview, just to give broad view, February 2 to 5th seems bearish or very volatile phase. PLANET ASPECTS are bad mainly Venus position is BAD so wealth destruction is indicated. Large cap stocks would come under pressure. Currency markets would turn more volatile, hitting government directly. 5th aspects are Pluto 90 Venus, When ever Pluto is involved, natural wealth or resourcesget destroyed, loss of life is indicated.The midpoint aspect should of Uranus-moon- Saturn, violent reaction, social unrest and attitude to rebel against injustice. Technical charts would surely give directional breakout within next 7 days.
5th to 19 SUN transit is DHANISTHA: as the name suggests more materialistic Nakshatra,these people are good in commercial thinking and value every aspect of life in terms of money, or their motive of every action is earn returns in any form.Positive side is they posses wealth and property, administrative ability makes them good boss or leaders. Negative side is greedy, possessive and sometimes too self absorbed nature leads to marital difficulties. In stock market, it is considered as very good for traders and speculators, best for booking profits.The Nakshatra lord is MARS- strength, courage, equally divided in Capricorn discipline, targeted approach and Aquarius scientific lateral vision, depth of thought.The personalities capable enough to save the world, in various crises, new thoughts and ideas, especially currently world is under huge pressure of recession financial institutions have collapsed, we need a radical thinker and an approach that can get us out. SUN transit and good aspect would generate an idea, or transition will begin the results to be seen over 5 to 30 years; as such things take decades to prove.
Sectors: Dhanistha would prove good for defense, electrical engineering big companies, Oil refineries as source of energy, Low PE banks and Sugar, agriculture based companies. Reality sector also would recover strongly. Stocks positive is software are: RIL,MARUTI, HCC, CROMPTON, IDBI, ITC and SENSEX.Negative for private banks, branded products, construction companies and technology stocks. NEGATIVE stocks: IOC, PRAJ, PUNJ, SUZLON and T.POWER.Anyway Dhanistha people also make best recovery agents, good negotiators andcurrently whole world needs them. Buying distressed assets and selling them after some work for good price is the best booming business, Hunt for such stories. Insurance companies have hiked premiums there profits would multiply.6th: as mentioned in the weekly is surely bad day, and we may see markets drifting lower.Effectively 9th to 13th will be first full working week under Dhanistha, broadly week seems good, and with more directional movement in positive territory. Technology and communication stocks might receive one more negative round of bad news. Media would hammered and to be viewed as investment opportunity. Positive movement is expected in Metals and fertilizer sectors showing positive signals along with FMCG counters. Week 16th to 20th: except 18th broad outlook is positive. More detailed view will be posted in the weekly files. Venus becoming strong during this week, makes positive for software stocks, volatility would increase unexpected levels. More bias is positive, as mentioned Sensex heavy stocks will give better returns. Cement, Electrical engineering,textile and Airline stocks very positive. Metals, Power producers, Brand value and PSUstocks coming as negative. List of stocks specifically for the week positive: TCS,HINDZINK, HCC, ZEE and MNM. Negative List: T.POWER, TITAN, JINDAL SAW,IOC, BOI and BHARTI.Towards close of the week heavy short sell positions to be created, in case market moves strongly up towards close. First day of the next week seems bad that is 23rd.so STBT carry forward is strongly Recommended.Sun will transit to Nakshatra Shattaraka, on 19th till 4th March: the Nakshatra lord is mystical RAHU and residing sign is Aquarius. More philosophic nature being very sensitive makes them good doctors, healers, preachers and born to handle HRD matters. Calculating the risk in terms of numbers can be done mathematically, but understanding timing is most important and it is learnt here. Scientific approach or rationality makes them visionary investors, speculators in equity as well debt markets. As mentioned in earlier write, derivatives are ruled by Rahu, and this is exactly the base for concept of derivative strategies. This Nakshatra is better in taking risk then Dhanistha having Capricorn safety approach; Shattaraka love to take unlimited risk as they can visualize the future, actually these people gamble a lot. Negative side: Secretive, not trustworthy, moody, opinion makes them stubborn and non flexible, arrogance and huge ego leads to downfall.Sectors to watch: Liquor, Aviation, Nuclear and Space Tchnology suppliers, irrigation large scale projects involving hydro-power. arge number of stocks are showing negative influence, Tata group TISCO, TPOWER,TMOT stocks and ADAG RELCAP, RCOM, then LUPIN, IVRCL, GMR, MNM,JINDAL STEEL, WIPRO, in banks AXIS, HDFCBK, INDUS and CANBK.Positive stocks are limited to few: CESE, HERO, RNRL, and Sterlite.The effective results would be more from 22nd onwards the last closing week, but with no major effective planetary aspects, we do not see panic in the market.February is the short month; historically Indian budget is presented in the last week. Most of the time markets have crashed after the budget, the reason were mostly over expectations from the budget and speculators spreading rumors to take advantage, to trap small investors. Things have changed; transparency has made things difficult for the manipulators, but history repeats. Though during the zone things do not look as bad as they seemed few days ago, but yes we are expecting decline in many stocks mentioned above. 22nd and 23rd look bearish, as SUN-90-PLUTO has always given big crack to nifty futures.Last week February 23rd to 27th: crack on first day might continue on 24th and then strong recovery is expected. 26th is Amavsya and also last derivative day of the month, general opinion for the day is bullish
source Mahesh Bhai se aya

RCOM TGT 185/195++

Reliance communication at present levels can give a good trading setup.A fall towards 160 levels should be bought with a stoploss of 155 for a targetof 185-195.Chart shows a steep reaction to resistance at 240-260 which saw stockfalling steeply to 170 level with the kindoff structure in formation nowit looks like a short term bottom is in place hence we have the trading opportunity.This view would be considered wrong if Rcom makes a new low without touching 185.